Europeans' Trust in US as Ally Plummets to Historic Low

Europeans' Trust in US as Ally Plummets to Historic Low

Historical Decline in Trust

In June 2026, Europeans' trust in the United States as an ally has reached a historic low. A survey conducted across fifteen countries reveals that only 11% of respondents consider Washington a reliable partner. This figure marks a significant drop from November 2024, when 22% of Europeans expressed such confidence.

The decline has accelerated since Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency in November 2024. Six months before the survey, in December 2025, 16% of Europeans still viewed the United States as an ally. This five-point drop in a semester illustrates growing distrust, fueled by political and strategic divergences.

Transatlantic relations have been shaken by unilateral decisions from the Trump administration. The questioning of trade agreements, such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, and the partial withdrawal from NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) have contributed to this mistrust. Europeans perceive these actions as a break from decades of cooperation.

Country-Specific Insights

Distrust toward the United States varies significantly by country. In Denmark, traditionally close to Washington, only 18% of respondents still consider the United States a reliable ally. This figure drops to 9% in France, where diplomatic tensions have multiplied since 2025.

In Spain, the perception is even more negative, with only 7% expressing trust. Spaniards have reservations about U.S. reliability in areas such as combating climate change, following the American withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in 2025.

These variations reflect distinct national sensitivities. The Baltic states, such as Estonia and Latvia, remain more confident, with trust levels exceeding 25%. Their strategic dependence on NATO and U.S. security guarantees explains this difference. However, even in these countries, the trend is downward.

Perception of US Support

A majority of Europeans doubt that the United States would come to their aid in the event of an attack. This skepticism has grown following Donald Trump's ambiguous statements about Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which provides for a collective response in the event of aggression against a member. In 2026, the U.S. president suggested that the United States might not intervene if an allied country failed to meet its financial commitments.

This uncertainty has prompted several European countries to rethink their defense strategies. France and Germany have accelerated their military cooperation, establishing a European rapid intervention force in March 2026. This project, long stalled by internal disagreements, finally came to fruition under the pressure of events.

Europeans are also questioning the consistency of U.S. foreign policy since 2025. Reversals on issues such as Ukraine, where the United States reduced military aid in 2025, have fueled concerns. Eastern European countries, directly threatened by Russia, feel particularly vulnerable to this unpredictability, according to analysts.

Impact on Transatlantic Relations

Growing distrust toward the United States could have lasting consequences for transatlantic relations. Trade agreements, such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, have been at a standstill since 2025. Negotiations, already difficult under previous administrations, were frozen after Donald Trump's return.

Europeans are now seeking to diversify their partnerships. The European Union has strengthened ties with countries such as Canada, Japan, and Australia. An economic cooperation agreement with these three nations was signed in April 2026, marking a desire to reduce dependence on the United States.

On the military front, the European Union launched a common defense fund in 2025, worth fifty billion euros. This fund aims to finance industrial and technological projects to strengthen the continent's strategic autonomy. Europeans hope to reduce their vulnerability to U.S. uncertainties.

Reactions from Political Leaders

European leaders have reacted cautiously to this survey. The French president has called for a "more sovereign Europe," emphasizing the need to strengthen the continent's military and industrial capabilities. In Germany, the chancellor has stressed the importance of maintaining dialogue with Washington despite disagreements.

In the United Kingdom, the prime minister has adopted a more conciliatory stance. London, which maintains close relations with the United States, has attempted to play a mediating role. However, tensions persist, particularly on issues such as Brexit and relations with China.

Eastern European countries, such as Poland, have expressed concern over this distrust. Warsaw, which heavily relies on U.S. security guarantees, has called for clarification of the United States' position on NATO. Polish leaders have also strengthened their cooperation with France and Germany to diversify their alliances.

Future of NATO and Security Alliances

The future of NATO is at the heart of European concerns. The treaty, signed in 1949, is based on solidarity among its members. However, Donald Trump’s statements about Article 5 have sown doubt about U.S. commitment. By 2025, several European countries had begun exploring alternatives to ensure their security.

France has proposed the creation of a "European Defense Community," a project that has sparked debate. Some countries, like Germany, support this initiative, while others, such as Hungary, see it as a threat to their sovereignty. Discussions continue, but internal divisions are slowing progress.

Europeans are also seeking to strengthen cooperation with other organizations, such as the African Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. These partnerships aim to diversify alliances and reduce dependence on the United States. However, these initiatives take time and require significant investment.

Economic and Strategic Implications

Distrust toward the United States has economic repercussions. European companies are reducing their investments in the U.S., fearing protectionist measures. In 2026, European direct investment in the United States fell by 15%, according to data from the European Central Bank.

The technology and energy sectors are particularly affected. In 2025, the United States imposed tariffs on European imports of solar panels and wind turbines. These measures prompted a response from the European Union, which threatened retaliatory trade actions.

Strategically, Europeans are seeking to develop their own capabilities. In 2026, the European Union launched an independent communications satellite project to reduce its dependence on U.S. systems. This €10 billion project aims to strengthen European sovereignty in critical areas.

Conclusion: Perspectives and Uncertainties

Growing European distrust of the United States as an ally marks a turning point in transatlantic relations. This trend, accelerated by Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, could have lasting consequences. Europeans are seeking to diversify their partnerships and strengthen their strategic autonomy.

However, the challenges are many. Internal divisions within the European Union, budgetary constraints, and geopolitical uncertainties complicate these efforts. The coming years will be crucial in determining whether Europe can become a more independent actor on the international stage.

Relations with the United States will remain a major issue. Europeans will need to strike a balance between the need to cooperate with Washington and the desire to reduce their dependence. The next U.S. elections, scheduled for 2028, could also influence this dynamic.

In this context, Europe finds itself at a crossroads. The ability of European leaders to overcome their differences and strengthen cooperation will determine the continent’s future. One thing is certain: trust in the United States will not be rebuilt overnight.

Key Points

• Only 11% of Europeans view the United States as a reliable ally in 2026, down from 22% in 2024.
• Distrust has accelerated since Donald Trump’s return to the presidency in 2025, with unilateral decisions such as the partial withdrawal from NATO.
• European countries are diversifying their partnerships (Canada, Japan, Australia) and strengthening their military autonomy (common defense fund of €50 billion).
• The Baltic states remain more confident (25%+), but the trend is declining across Europe.
• The future of NATO is being questioned following Trump’s ambiguous statements about Article 5.

Sources

1. DW English - "Only 1 in 10 Europeans see US as an ally — study". (secondary)
2. CBS International - "Just 1 in 10 Europeans now view the U.S. as an ally, according to poll". (secondary)
3. Independent World - "Only 11% of Europeans view the US as an ally, survey finds". (secondary)
4. Straits Times SG - "Only 11% of Europeans view US as ally, survey shows". (secondary)

Transparency: 4 sources (0 primary, 4 secondary). Verification: June 10, 2026.

Truthyx - June 10, 2026